Hats off to Elon Musk. He gave us Paypal, Solar Metropolis, and Tesla Motors. If only some of his other, far more formidable suggestions warranted the exact praise. Choose his newest strategy, to shoot people today off to Mars. Though information remain a bit baffled, the vital takeaway is tickets to Mars would offer for the modicum selling price of $200,000 apiece by 2024. Of study course, Musk’s strategy assumes an individual is eager to front $ten billion or far more to pay for all that gee-whiz rocketry and infrastructure he described at the Intercontinental Astronautical Congress. (It also assumes $ten billion is adequate, but far more on that afterwards.) When SpaceX debuted, Musk claimed his rockets would be ten instances less expensive, ten instances far more trustworthy, and provide 10 instances the flight rate of current rockets—at least a 1,000-fold improvement that by no means came genuine. Musk’s ambitions appear to be to count on that aged Silicon Valley magical considering, of an exponential expansion curve predicting less expensive obtain to house. But he offers neither adequate technological innovation enhancements nor proof of desire to include up to a $200,000 trip to Mars. Musk is coming from a Moore’s Law earth of personal computers and autos. Mars is not a Moore’s Law earth.
Hats off to Elon Musk. He gave us Paypal, Solar Metropolis, and Tesla Motors. If only some of his other, far more formidable suggestions warranted the exact praise. Choose his newest strategy, to shoot people today off to Mars. Though information remain a bit baffled, the vital takeaway is tickets to Mars would offer for the modicum selling price of $200,000 apiece by 2024.
Of study course, Musk’s strategy assumes an individual is eager to front $ten billion or far more to pay for all that gee-whiz rocketry and infrastructure he described at the Intercontinental Astronautical Congress. (It also assumes $ten billion is adequate, but far more on that afterwards.) When SpaceX debuted, Musk claimed his rockets would be ten instances less expensive, ten instances far more trustworthy, and provide 10 instances the flight rate of current rockets—at least a 1,000-fold improvement that by no means came genuine. Musk’s ambitions appear to be to count on that aged Silicon Valley magical considering, of an exponential expansion curve predicting less expensive obtain to house. But he offers neither adequate technological innovation enhancements nor proof of desire to include up to a $200,000 trip to Mars. Musk is coming from a Moore’s Law earth of personal computers and autos. Mars is not a Moore’s Law earth.
John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, is an pro in house, defense, and intelligence plan, and is commonly referred to as upon to testify in front of congress on these problems.